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[In the first half of the year, China's economy stabilized.]
Release date:[2021/7/23] Is reading[307]次

In the first half of this year, in the face of complex and varied domestic and international environments, my country continued to consolidate the development of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, accurate implementation, and continued to stabilize and restore, showing steady strengthening, stabilizing a good situation, highlighting China's economy Powerful toughness and strong vitality.

Affected by the base raise, my country's GDP increased by 12.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, fell 5.6 percentage points in the first quarter. According to the average growth rate of two years, it increased by 5.3% in the first half of the year, and it was raised from 0.3 percentage points in a quarter, and the growth rate in the previous quarter was 1.3% in the first quarter.

From an industrial point of view, the second industry has increased by 6.1% in the second industry in the first half of the year, and the average annual growth of the tertiary industry increased by 4.9%, each with a quarter, and 0.2 percentage points respectively. The growth rate of the second industry is faster than the tertiary industry, but the improvement is not as good as the latter, showing that the fourth quarter epidemic prevention and control continues to be good, and the boost effect of the service industry is more obvious.

From the perspective of demand, the final consumption in the first half of the year, the total amount of capital formation and net exports to GDP accumulated year-on-year contribution rates were 61.7%, 19.2%, and 19.1%, respectively, with 1.7 percentage points in the first quarter, fell 5.3 percentage points and accelerated 6.9 White points, consumption continues to play the "crimp stone" role, but the contribution rate of net exports has increased.

From the data of June, most economic indicators have improved. From the supply side, the increase in industrial added value increased by 6.5% in June, slightly lower than 6.6% of last month, but the growth rate of 0.56% from the previous month, preferably in April and May, toughness is full. The service industry has also increased by 6.5% year-on-year, less than 6.6% of previous months, but mainly affected by local epidemic in Guangdong, belongs to short-term impact.

From the demand side, the export performance is far better than expected. In June, the export of US dollar increased by 32.2% year-on-year, preferably 27.9% from the previous month. In June, the social consumer goods retail two years increased by 4.9%, better than 4.5% of the previous month, and the growth rate of residents can be disposed and the unemployment rate is at a low position. In the first half of the year, fixed assets investment increased by 4.4%, from 1 to May, rebounded by 0.2 percentage points, continued to gradually recall the momentum.

In the fixed asset investment, manufacturing investment rebounded from 0.6% from 1 to May to 2.0%, and the improvement is the largest. In the second quarter, my country's industrial capacity utilization rate reached 78.4%, and the overall profitability of enterprises improved significantly. In addition, financial institutions increased to manufacturing support, which would be conducive to manufacturing investment.

The growth rate of infrastructure investment has fallen from 2.6% to 2.4%, weaker than market expectations. On June 9, the State Council executive meeting requested the construction of "14th Five-Year" major project projects, and special debt issuance has expanded, but infrastructure investment has not rebounded as scheduled, or maintains high pressure policies for local government implicit debts. The Ministry of Finance strengthens the supervision of special debts.

Overall, despite the unfavorable impact of the local epidemic, my country's economy still maintains a better development momentum, and the economy is still sustainable. Outlook in the second half of the year, the global epidemic continued to evolve, and the external instability uncertainty factors were still more, and the domestic economic recovery is unbalanced, and the basis of consolidating and stabilizing and restoring will still need to work hard. In addition to continuing to do epidemic prevention and control, it is recommended that the macroeconomic policy maintains continuous stability, and the financial policy should be focused on grasping the rhythm of special debt, accelerating the progress of financial expenditures, and further improve the performance of use; monetary policy should be committed to maintaining liquidity , Create a suitable monetary financial environment for entity economic development.


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