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[High production and sales let the market face Meng!]
Release date:[2024/3/29] Is reading[44]次

March 26 polyester filament high production and sales, so that some market participants face Meng! From the specification point of view, POY production and marketing is obviously better than FDY, why the downstream order performance is not obviously good, this production and marketing data performance is better?

From the perspective of inventory, although experienced two continuous promotions on Friday and Wednesday this week, the mainstream factory finished product inventory of polyester filament is still in a relatively high position since 2023, more than 20 days, the recovery of downstream orders is relatively slow, fortunately, the downstream opening probability is higher, considering the low downstream finished product inventory, so the short-term rigid demand is still supported. Therefore, as long as the polyester filament is just needed, there is no new production capacity in the short term, and the enterprise inventory will accumulate in early April, but the enterprise will resist pressure and form a short-term support for the price.

From the cost point of view, international crude oil volatility, recently heard overseas PX shortage, mainly reflected in South Korea and Southeast Asia, but the domestic PX inventory is loose, the impact is small, in addition to Zhejiang Petrochemical at the end of the maintenance is expected, PTA end has two sets of equipment storage and production expectations, raw materials are good and bad in the short term is expected to maintain the volatile trend.

That in such a good production and marketing, the mainstream polyester filament factory is also as it said, the price rises 100-200 yuan/ton range, the later price is warm to continue?

In the view of the small edition, the main influencing factors of the current market of polyester filament are factory inventory and downstream start-up situation, after the recent concentration to the warehouse, polyester filament or maintain a warm trend in the short term, the market increase after the next round of shipment of polyester filament in mid-April needs to pay attention to the raw material end PTA under the low-cost labor, the implementation of the new overhaul of the device, and other external volatility factors.

At this stage, the polyester filament market is relatively variable, mainly reflecting the upstream and downstream two aspects: First, with the temperature gradually rising, the arrival of the peak travel period, PX storage is expected to increase. Taking 2023 as an example, as shown in the figure below, in the first quarter, under the influence of high oil prices, PX supply is tight, and the maintenance of the stack device is concentrated, further expanding the tight supply of PX supplies, and PX prices are soaring. At the same time, PX rose to boost PTA prices, driving polyester varieties including polyester filament to rise simultaneously.

At present, the PX plant runs smoothly, the capacity utilization rate remains high near 87.37%, the inventory is still at a high level, and the downstream PTA is also trapped in the situation of high inventory and low demand, the market lacks power support, the geopolitical crisis continues, the oil price is expected to increase, to a certain extent or boost the PX market atmosphere, but whether it can be conducted like PTA and even polyester end, Still unknown.

Second, according to the practice, on the eve of Ramadan, some countries and regions in the Middle East and Europe take into account the stagnation of shipping during Ramadan, and the shipping time is around 20-30 days, and orders are issued in advance after the Spring Festival. However, orders in Ramadan this year are more than orders placed on the eve of the Spring Festival, so some weaving manufacturers are full of orders before the festival, and some orders are still placed about a week after the festival. At present, Ramadan orders are over, and Ramadan lasts until mid-April, and overseas orders are affected at this stage, and the overall demand is slow to increase. According to Longzhong research data show that the overall overseas orders of textiles, clothing and other terminal fabrics have not changed much, some manufacturers have reduced orders, and the overall export situation of polyester filament, especially DTY, is OK, some foreign trade enterprises said that the export volume of polyester filament this year is basically the same as last year, better than the export situation of textile fabrics.

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